Forecasting the unemployment rate of Kermanshah province using the exponential smoothing method based on the time series data of the unemployment rate from 2005 to 2022

Soltanipoor, Meysam

doi:10.22034/mpo.2023.367758.1067

Forecasting the unemployment rate of Kermanshah province using the exponential smoothing method based on the time series data of the unemployment rate from 2005 to 2022

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Meysam Soltanipoor

Management and Planning Organization of Kermanshah, Iran.

10.22034/mpo.2023.367758.1067

Abstract

Due to the importance of the unemployment rate in policy making and planning, the present research was conducted with the aim of investigating and forecasting the unemployment rate of the last two seasons of 1401(SH,Year) and four seasons of 1402 for Kermanshah province using the exponential smoothing method.
In this research, the dataset of Kermanshah province's labor force plan, which was collected from the spring of 1384 (SH,Year) to the summer of 1401, was used, and the time series analysis of the unemployment rate of Kermanshah province was done using R software.
After the investigations, the unemployment rate of the last two seasons of 1401 was estimated to be 16.22 and 19.31, respectively, as a result, according to the unemployment rate of spring and summer and the predicted unemployment rates of autumn and winter of 1401, the unemployment rate of 1401 is 16.13. It was estimated. Also, the unemployment rate of the seasons of 1402 was estimated as 14.69, 13.62, 16.27 and 19.36 respectively, so the unemployment rate of 1402 is predicted to be 15.98.
Therefore, it is expected that the unemployment rate, which has been increasing from 1399 (SH,Year) to the end of 1401, will decrease with a gentle slope in 1402. Also, the results of this research showed that the exponential smoothing method estimated the trend of the data very accurately and therefore it is a suitable method for predicting the unemployment rate.

Keywords

Kermanshah province

Unemployment rate

Time series

Labor force plan

Exponential Smoothing