Progress and Development of Kermanshah Province

Progress and Development of Kermanshah Province

The effect of oil price fluctuations on stock returns according to the situation of the political stability index of oil producing

Document Type : Original Article

Abstract
The economy of petroleum producing countries depends on petroleum revenue in a huge rate and petroleum mutations considers one of the most impressive factors in the various sectors of the economy especially in the stock market. The aim of the present research is analyzing petroleum price fluctuation on the efficiency of the stock market in the petroleum producing nominated countries based on threshold panel approach due to the monthly data during a period of Jan-2006 to Jan-2019. However the political stability of petroleum producing countries with their domestic and oversea circumstances is different, this research has extracted from the threshold alter trend due to the Long-term political risk index of countries and also has used through Stock price index for stock efficiency estimation of petroleum producing nominated countries during 2006 to 2019. The research findings along with confirmation of the existence of threshold effect in Reviewed modal, would indicate with increasing world oil price, the efficiency of stock would be increased in reviewed countries. in the event, political stability in reviewed countries would be over the level of threshold calculated (3.9357), the efficiency of increasing petroleum price rather than efficiency of stock is lower than the condition that political stability is fewer than the threshold level. Empirical research findings have the useful reasons for investors and politicians that requires recognizing the precise effects of changing petroleum price on the stock efficiency of petroleum producing countries and also confirm the necessity of planning and Principled orientation in petroleum producing countries in order to decline Structural dependence of petroleum revenue.
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